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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 534

February 27, 2025 Thursday Weather

Severe weather potential next week

What the month did

February 2025 was the 56th-warmest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 34.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 35.6°F (-0.9°F).

February 2025 was the 56th-wettest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.1in (+0.0in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Cyclone Garance (22S) has developed a ragged eye — analyzed at 105-knots (Category 3). Oddly enough, the storm formed just off the coast of Madagascar and drifted east for several days. Now, it turn to the south and cross over France’s La Reunion island with potential for significant damage. The landfall (island-fall) intensity is forecast by JTWC to be around 95-knots, just on the edge of Major Hurricane equivalent.

Cyclone Alfred is even stronger at 115-knots (Category 4) east of Australia in the SW Pacific. Alfred will track south and avoid land.

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Milepost
534 · laid 2025-02-27T15:36:31.874000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/february-27-2025-thursday-weather
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