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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 529

February 21, 2025 Friday Weather Update

Watching the polar vortex spin in Canada for the next 2-weeks

What the month did

February 2025 was the 56th-warmest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 34.7°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 35.6°F (-0.9°F).

February 2025 was the 56th-wettest February in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.2in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.1in (+0.0in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Best place to start is to show the upper-levels from the dynamic tropopause map for the next 12-days.

The coldest colors are mainly polar air with anomalies on the tropopause showing up as “white fuzzballs” that continue to rotate around cyclonically over the Arctic and dip into Canada. As Pacific short-wave disturbances race eastward with the jet stream, sometimes they can capture some of the “white fuzzball” and create a tail into the Lower 48 that serves as a pathway for extreme cold. Add in the formation of a long-lasting cold pool with high pressure at the surface, and you get what we just experienced as some of the coldest/latest winter air on record.

For subscribers

The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.

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Milepost
529 · laid 2025-02-22T01:49:49.648000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/february-21-2025-friday-weather-update
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