Welcome to February. While the likelihood of extreme cold in mid-February is still low, I’d like to show the recent ECMWF 12z update to highlight what high-end potential might be for extreme snow and cold. Then, we need to ask if we’re heading into that type of flow-regime with the stratosphere split — strong co-located tropospheric polar vortex over the Lower 48. I’d say 1-in-4 chance right now for much below normal temperatures surging out of the Pacific Northwestern and Northern Rockies cold pool.

Regardless, we’ll watch the model updates everyday and perhaps detect a trend that will help determine the outcome in the coming days.