November 13, 2024 Wednesday Weather Update
Favorable guidance lowers chance of impacts from Sara to Florida
November 2024 was the 8th-warmest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 45.1°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 43.0°F (+2.2°F).
November 2024 was the 13th-wettest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 3.0in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (+0.8in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
While it is likely that Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean by this weekend, the coin has flipped in our favor with an entirely different, more certain outcome in line with climatology. Thank goodness for such fortuitous outcome. The main story is that Potential Tropical Cyclone 19L — recently designated by NHC — will likely get hung up near/over the coast of Honduras and not undergo the looping track over the extremely warm waters of the western Caribbean.
Deep convection is firing near the loosely defined center of 19L and Sara should be named in the next 12-24 hours.
The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.
Read the full piece →- Milepost
- 433 · laid 2024-11-14T03:32:22.729000Z
- Source
- https://weather.substack.com/p/november-13-2024-wednesday-weather
- Digest
- a67c835a188b17b4f49674321de8650408dbed102c011b8fb6906bf04b44f02b
- Machine
- JSON