November 11, 2024 Monday Winter Weather Update
ECMWF model upgrade on Tuesday
November 2024 was the 8th-warmest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 45.1°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 43.0°F (+2.2°F).
November 2024 was the 13th-wettest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 3.0in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (+0.8in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
As you know, I’m a big fan of the European (ECMWF) weather forecasting center as their forecasts are highly skillful and the best in the world now for three decades. A new version or cycle of their model suite (HRES, Ensemble / EPS) will come online Tuesday morning (06z) and showcase significantly better 2-meter temperatures and a reduction in the 10-meter wind speed bias (too low) within tropical cyclones.
Much more technical details are at the newsletter link above.
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