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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 426

November 3, 2024 Special Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Rafael expected to form soon in southern Caribbean

What the month did

November 2024 was the 8th-warmest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 45.1°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 43.0°F (+2.2°F).

November 2024 was the 13th-wettest November in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 3.0in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (+0.8in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Quick evening update to highlight the development of Potential Tropical Cyclone 18L in the southern Caribbean. NHC expects Rafael to form by Monday afternoon and then threaten Jamaica as a tropical storm very early Tuesday.

Rafael should steadily intensify into a hurricane and reach Cuba early Wednesday, thereafter reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

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Milepost
426 · laid 2024-11-04T00:22:38.026000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/november-3-2024-special-tropical
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