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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 407

Oct 6, 2024 Hurricane Milton Rapidly Intensifying

Milton forecast to become at least a strong Category 4 hurricane

What the month did

October 2024 was the 2nd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 58.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+4.4°F).

October 2024 was the 3rd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.0in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-1.5in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Hurricane Milton [14L] is rapidly intensifying over the very warm Bay of Campeche in the far SW Gulf of Mexico. All indications are for a Category 4 or 5 hurricane in the next 36-48 hours as Milton heads just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The track turns more northeast until near the Florida coast west of Bradenton but south of Tampa Bay. A rightward turn coincides with a slow-down and rapid transition into an extratropical cyclone.

5 pm: Central Pressure is 983 mb w/maximum sustained winds of 75-knots (Category 1)

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Milepost
407 · laid 2024-10-06T21:37:34.411000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/oct-6-2024-hurricane-milton-rapidly
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