Sept 30, 2024 Monday Tropical Update
Gulf of Mexico system still uncertain while Kirk and Leslie loom far out in Atlantic
October 2024 was the 2nd-warmest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 58.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 54.5°F (+4.4°F).
October 2024 was the 3rd-driest October in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 1.0in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (-1.5in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Tropical Storm Kirk well on way to becoming a very large and intense Cape Verde Hurricane. Another wave behind Kirk will also likely develop and head WNW probably becoming Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane Leslie.
Complicated Caribbean / Gulf of Mexico gyre circulation could spawn 2 Eastern Pacific storms and perhaps 1 or 2 Gulf of Mexico storms. NHC has 40% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexic.
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