Sept 19, 2024 Thursday Tropical Update
Watching Gulf of Mexico in 7-8 day range
September 2024 was the 2nd-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 68.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+2.7°F).
September 2024 was the 44th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Still in wait-and-see mode for details on development of Gulf of Mexico tropical storm or hurricane, but there is plenty of model support for Helene late next week.
Global models — conventional and A.I. trained — are all pointing to a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in 7-10 days.
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