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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Tropics MILEPOST 388

Sept 10, 2024 Hurricane Francine

After a period of struggling against dry air, Francine set to intensify perhaps to Category 2

What the month did

September 2024 was the 2nd-warmest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 68.6°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 66.0°F (+2.7°F).

September 2024 was the 44th-driest September in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.6in (-0.3in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The central pressure of Francine has fallen a bit faster in the past 6-hours, but the rapid intensification mentioned by NHC did not occur as expected. However, the smaller inner core — after shedding the large convective blob yesterday — is much more compact and conducive to rapid pressure falls — and then intensification of the wind speeds.

A hint about the potential intensification is seen with 18z suite of HAFS-A and HAFS-B mesoscale models that show maximum intensity in the Category 2 range with pressure in the 960s rising to low-970s at landfall.

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Milepost
388 · laid 2024-09-10T23:54:16.479000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/sept-10-2024-hurricane-francine
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