The tropical wave tracked for almost 2-weeks across the Atlantic has finally reached the cyclogenesis stage in the southern Gulf of Mexico. ECMWF AIFS guidance was leading the way along with the ensembles showing development for 7-10 days.

Satellite imagery at 1:30 PM ET showed banding and deep convection around the center of circulation. Francine is well on its way to becoming a hurricane and could be rapidly intensifying for the next 24-hours. However, wind shear will increase as Francine reaches the Gulf coast perhaps causing a weakening or dismantling of the storm on Wednesday. While some trough interactions are favorable, the angle of attack is perpendicular with Francine, so unlikely to get much beneficial phasing. That is good news keeping the ceiling of Francine in the Cat 1-2 range rather than Major Hurricane.