August 26, 2024 Tuesday Tropical Update
Atlantic development uncertain
August 2024 was the 16th-warmest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 74.0°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 73.1°F (+1.0°F).
August 2024 was the 44th-driest August in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.5in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.7in (-0.2in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
The development pathway for the next system in the central Atlantic still pegged at 20% by NHC is from the ITCZ/monsoon trough and not a coherent tropical wave. However, an area of low pressure can be tracked — albeit weak — once the convection sustains in the coming days. Then, it’s up to the random vagaries of wind shear, troughs, and dry air to determine if the disturbance can catch fire.
Folks are wondering what’s going on in the Atlantic. My facetious post on X turned into a USA Today headline. Phil Klotzbach isn’t ready to throw in the towel on the 2024 season being very active, but based upon what I’m seeing w/extended range modeling, the rest of the September looks like the struggle bus for the Atlantic.
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