Tropical Depression 02L advisories underway — next name is Beryl.

The 5-day forecast cone heads to Jamaica as a Category 2+ hurricane.

Many models go into the Yucatan or Honduras, but it is too soon to discount a more northly track that aims for the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully soon we can eliminate that scenario.

ECMWF Ensemble Envelope of Solutions (12Z) through 180-hours

And through 10-days

The solutions on the right of the ensemble mean are more akin to the GFS. We don’t have a preference for either scenario at this time, so the Gulf of Mexico is still in play — until we say otherwise.

ECMWF HRES 12z is south of Jamaica in the central Caribbean assuring a Central America landfall in 6-7 days by next Thursday.

ECMWF AIFS (12z) is on top of HRES (12z) but at a lower/weaker intensity because of the coarseness of the model.

GraphCast-ECMWF 12z (0.25°) is more intense at 992 mb into the Yucatan in 6-7 days.

GFS 18z: is more intense with Beryl — and perhaps feels the ridge less allowing a more northerly track around Jamaica.

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Basin Wide IR Satellite Imagery

Tropical Depression 02L Zoom IR Satellite

Nice convective blow-up with 02L against easterly wind shear displacing the thunderstorms to the east of the center. Intensification will be slow but steady as 02L steams westward.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No activity expected in the next 48-hours or 7-days, or who knows how long — but the rest of June looks quiet.

Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No development expected in the next 48-hours to 7-days

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