June 26, 2024 Tropical Update: Ensemble Watching
Ensembles show likely tropical storm or hurricane in 7-10 days
June 2024 was the 2nd-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 71.8°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+2.3°F).
June 2024 was the 41st-driest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Headlines for Wednesday
X is watching the development of a tropical wave into the central tropical Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) with a 30% chance according to NHC in the next 7-days. Our main tool for medium/long range hurricane development is weather model ensembles like ECMWF EPS and NOAA GEFS. Both are showing a significant signal (most members) with a tropical storm up to major hurricane. \
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- 323 · laid 2024-06-26T12:43:21.423000Z
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- https://weather.substack.com/p/june-26-2024-tropical-update-ensemble
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