June 15, 2024 Tropical Update: Gulf of Mexico
Developing Central American Gyre may spawn a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico
June 2024 was the 2nd-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 71.8°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+2.3°F).
June 2024 was the 41st-driest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
Invest 90L is gone fishing in the Atlantic and no longer a concern for tropical storm development. Focus has shifted almost entirely to the southern Gulf of Mexico for the development of a system next week within the Central American Gyre.
The EPS Ensembles show a variety of potential tracks dependent upon the random convective elements within the gyre rotating counter-clockwise.
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