June 4, 2024 Tropical Update
Global tropics remain quiet for next week, at least
June 2024 was the 2nd-warmest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 71.8°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 69.5°F (+2.3°F).
June 2024 was the 41st-driest June in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 2.8in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (-0.3in).
NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.
An interesting new paper was published on African Easterly Wave (AEW) strength and behavior over the past 4-decades using a tracking algorithm on the ERA5 reanalysis data.
Tropical cyclogenesis occurs farther west for weaker developing African easterly waves (AEWs) than for stronger developing AEWs
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