Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Outlook

No areas of development across the North Atlantic today. A tropical wave in the central Main Development Region (MDR) is firing up showers but no circulation or continued genesis is expected. The GeoColor + sun glint shows the hue of sand / African dust layer entering the Caribbean with a more significant dust cloud coming off the coast of Africa today.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific for the next 7-days. Very dry across Mexico and central America and not much convection along the ITCZ.

Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Typhoon Ewiniar [01W] formed very near land over Luzon in the Philippines reaching almost major status. The system has now become disorganized but JTWC maintains 85-knots maximum sustained winds. Ewiniar (01W) will head out to sea southeast of Japan over the next several days presenting shipping issues, but no other land impacts.

18-Hour Forecast | Simulated Radar | HRRR

More showers and storms across the Southeast with daytime heating this afternoon.

Unfortunately, more widespread storms across the Great Lakes and Northeast with waves/lines of organized convection circulating around a broad synoptic-scale system into Canada.

Next 10-days Upper-Level Weather Pattern | ECMWF AIFS

Watching for any ridge development over the Lower 48 for a “heat dome” but not seeing sustained heat waves in the next 10-days. Instead, more mobile troughs arriving from NW Canada and Alaska rotating into the Pacific Northwest and then through the Great Lakes. Each of those will be the focus of rainfall — so pretty good for anyone trying to grow things!

NWS WPC 7-Day Precipitation Forecast | Watering Needs

Focus for heavy rainfall amounts over the next week centered over Texas to the central Plains.

Monday Temperatures 10:30 AM ET

Monday High Temperatures & Weather

Lower 48 Average: 79.0°F | 172 Million at/above 80°F | 80 Million at/above 90°F

Searing heat across Texas — with 110°F likely along the Rio Grande. This heat is not breaking anytime soon.

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTH/CENTRAL TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower
   Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.  More isolated severe
   thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much of
   central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and the
   mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

Next 8-Days Weather Systems | ECMWF HRES

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