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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Notebook MILEPOST 291

May 24, 2024 Memorial Day Weekend Forecast

Storm system in Great Lakes to affect outdoor activity

What the month did

May 2024 was the 16th-warmest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 62.2°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 61.0°F (+1.2°F).

May 2024 was the 14th-wettest May in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.6in against a 1991–2020 normal of 3.1in (+0.5in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

So far in 2024, 0 Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones observed.

Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Outlook

Still a 10% chance of further development with an area of low pressure in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas moving generally NE.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

No areas of interest in the Eastern Pacific for the next 7-days. Very dry across Mexico and central America and not much convection along the ITCZ.

Western Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Two areas watched by JTWC: 99B in the Bay of Bengal and 93W near the Philippines (Luzon). Each has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next 2-days.



18-Hour Forecast | Simulated Radar | HRRR

Note the snowfall in the northern reaches of North Dakota

Heavy thunderstorms will move into the Great Lakes including southern Michigan. Along the cold front, a Slight Chance of severe weather, otherwise welcome rainfall to keep temperatures in check.

Next 10-days Upper-Level Weather Pattern | ECMWF AIFS

NWS WPC 7-Day Precipitation Forecast | Watering Needs

Friday Temperatures 7:00 AM ET

Friday High Temperatures & Weather

80s ito Detroit and the Ohio Valley today before the cold front rolls through this evening.

mid-90s soar in Orlando & pushing into the upper-90s through Memorial Day

Lower 48 Average: 75.1°F | 229 Million at/above 80°F | 62 Million at/above 90°F

Saturday High Temperatures & Afternoon Weather

Just scattered showers outside of the central Plains on Saturday

Sunday High Temperatures & Afternoon Weather

Stronger thunderstorms in the Mississippi River Valley including St. Louis and Indy on Sunday. High pressure continues to bake Florida.

Monday High Temperatures & Afternoon Weather

Memorial Day afternoon precipitation heaviest associated with yet another storm system tracking into the Great Lakes during Sun/Mon and then heading into Canada.

Probability of precipitation highest = washout centered on Western PA

This will be fine-tuned over the next couple days prior to Memorial Day

Next 8-Days Weather Systems | ECMWF HRES

Forecast Farm | EPS 15-Day Precipitation + Anomaly [%]

ECMWF Ensemble | 5-Day Temperature Anomaly

Days 1-5 | May 24-28, 2024

Days 6-10 | May 29 - June 2, 2024

Days 11-15 | June 3-7, 2024


Thank you to Subscribers and Supporters! Welcome to May 2024 — countdown to hurricane season in 8-days.

Maps sourced from weathermodels.com designed and innovated by yours truly! I actually create all of my content from scratch.

Milepost
291 · laid 2024-05-24T12:03:08.691000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/may-24-2024-memorial-day-weekend
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e38b9de6cb8636a57d9aa8e4edcbf8362b47155517739d90a1fd83c745a995c0
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