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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Winter MILEPOST 177

January 8, 2024 Arctic Blast

After two blizzards, the bottom drops out

What the month did

January 2024 was the 46th-warmest January in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 31.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 32.3°F (-0.5°F).

January 2024 was the 7th-wettest January in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (+0.9in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

Too much going on over the next 10-days to fit into one post. So, updating on the intensity and progress of the forecast Arctic blast mainly peaking on Monday and Tuesday of next week across the central U.S. including Texas, and then into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. I’m also constantly updating on X/Twitter (@RyanMaue).

The conventional weather models including GFS initially weakened the extreme cold of the air mass with a cut-off low from the Pacific undercutting the polar front. However, that has largely faded. And, to top it off, the A.I. trained models are more extreme. I’m not entirely sure if these models have a cold bias, but both FourCastNet (Nvidia) and GraphCast (Google) are impressive!

For subscribers

The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.

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Milepost
177 · laid 2024-01-09T00:22:57.619000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/january-8-2024-arctic-blast
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