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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Winter MILEPOST 174

January 4, 2024 Thursday Update

Winter has arrived finally in a big way

What the month did

January 2024 was the 46th-warmest January in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 31.9°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 32.3°F (-0.5°F).

January 2024 was the 7th-wettest January in the 132-year national record (1895–2026), at 3.3in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.3in (+0.9in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

ECMWF HRES 12z was alarming to say the least with historical and monumental extreme cold from an Arctic blast over Western U.S.

Temperatures are up to -77°F below normal — a hilarious number, but that puts actual temperatures in the minus 50s in some locales. And, while this is a 10-day forecast with an extreme outcome, the ensembles support the “Polar Vortex” blast into the Lower 48 in the 8-12 day time frame.

For subscribers

The rest of this piece is for paid subscribers of Weather Trader. The Post keeps the archive, the index and the record; the writing itself stays behind the same subscription it was published under.

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Milepost
174 · laid 2024-01-05T02:10:25.102000Z
Source
https://weather.substack.com/p/january-4-2024-thursday-update
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