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Milepost
1617

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 9 November 2026

Kansas City, Missouri Revisions MILEPOST 1617

Kansas City's forecast for Saturday has moved 12°F colder

60°F in the 20261107T06:00Z run, 48°F in the 20261109T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 22°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, November 14 at 18Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 60.2°F in the 20261107T06:00Z cycle to 48.5°F in the 20261109T00:00Z — a move of -11.7°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-11.7 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 5
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
22.1 °F normal 11.7 °F
current run
Milepost
1617 · laid 2026-11-09T10:25:26Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261109T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
d446846ce6aa8159bae2eecd4d2d2f4ad9206e14c988e068377e7ad14ec48824
Machine
JSON