NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1616
Guidance has run 4.2°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 9,354 pairs is +4.16°F, against +0.13°F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over October 10–November 9, 2026, it lands +4.16°F from the report, across 9,354 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.16 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 85 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1616 · laid 2026-11-09T06:25:26Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 27974bab31ddcf57dc06291a8cff06055e108f75f1aa8518acbe849b4d753cd4
- Machine
- JSON