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Milepost
1615

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 9 November 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1614

Minneapolis's forecast for Sunday has moved 11°F colder

44°F in the 20261107T00:00Z run, 33°F in the 20261108T18:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 8 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 13°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Sunday, November 15 at 09Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 44.4°F in the 20261107T00:00Z cycle to 33.1°F in the 20261108T18:00Z — a move of -11.3°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Sunday at 09Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-11.3 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
13 °F normal 11.3 °F
current run
Milepost
1614 · laid 2026-11-09T04:25:25Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261108T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
9ea7c0f0dd464e945a8f3e73691e150e400aaf7403c9bd3de8f259d64313d9d2
Machine
JSON