The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1613
The ledger, through November 9
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.37°F at day 1 and 4.76°F at day 7, over 727,441 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 10–November 9, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.37 | 68,005 |
| Day 2 | 2.70 | 2.57 | 67,794 |
| Day 3 | 3.03 | 2.83 | 67,711 |
| Day 4 | 3.36 | 3.17 | 67,714 |
| Day 5 | 3.94 | 3.68 | 67,707 |
| Day 6 | 4.50 | 4.26 | 67,693 |
| Day 7 | 4.91 | 4.76 | 55,068 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.10 | 34,532 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.3 °F | of 39,010 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 34,608 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,612 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.68 °F | of 34,610 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.76 °F | of 34,601 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 17,206 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 16,998 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.39 °F | of 15,785 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.45 °F | of 14,561 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 33,397 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.03 °F | of 33,099 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.94 °F | of 33,097 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.91 °F | of 20,467 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.47 °F | of 30,346 October 10–November 9, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1613 · laid 2026-11-09T00:25:27Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 8071935e235ff749236a872df69e1abb13b9b00013a50d909c947b9c180d34dc
- Machine
- JSON