The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1604
The ledger, through November 8
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.36°F at day 1 and 4.72°F at day 7, over 723,041 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 9–November 8, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.44 | 2.36 | 67,841 |
| Day 2 | 2.70 | 2.57 | 67,781 |
| Day 3 | 3.02 | 2.83 | 67,775 |
| Day 4 | 3.36 | 3.17 | 67,778 |
| Day 5 | 3.92 | 3.67 | 67,771 |
| Day 6 | 4.46 | 4.23 | 67,757 |
| Day 7 | 4.83 | 4.72 | 55,048 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.06 | 34,261 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.3 °F | of 39,016 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 34,640 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,644 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.67 °F | of 34,642 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.72 °F | of 34,557 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 17,210 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 16,404 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.37 °F | of 15,192 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.42 °F | of 13,974 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 33,201 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | of 33,131 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.92 °F | of 33,129 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.83 °F | of 20,491 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.49 °F | of 30,425 October 9–November 8, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1604 · laid 2026-11-08T00:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 996edc9f5eb2c6dc9d214d8313662f7784ca23582ccb255d412cbb23b0655872
- Machine
- JSON