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Milepost
1598

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Saturday, 7 November 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1598

Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 12°F colder

48°F in the 20261105T06:00Z run, 36°F in the 20261107T00:00Z — the 2nd-largest revision of the 11 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 14°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, November 13 at 15Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 47.9°F in the 20261105T06:00Z cycle to 36.3°F in the 20261107T00:00Z — a move of -11.5°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Friday at 15Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-11.5 °F normal 0.0 °F · 2 of 11
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
13.8 °F normal 11.5 °F
current run
Milepost
1598 · laid 2026-11-07T10:25:24Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261107T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
cc26672a11749e59fb50866b5816d1d9b34a3ba94bdaad41fd3c3cab13d24437
Machine
JSON