The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1594
The ledger, through November 7
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.36°F at day 1 and 4.69°F at day 7, over 717,114 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 8–November 7, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.36 | 67,891 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 67,909 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.82 | 67,903 |
| Day 4 | 3.35 | 3.16 | 67,906 |
| Day 5 | 3.90 | 3.66 | 67,899 |
| Day 6 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 67,885 |
| Day 7 | 4.79 | 4.69 | 54,996 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.04 | 34,090 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 38,433 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 34,704 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.82 °F | of 34,708 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 34,706 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.69 °F | of 34,465 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 17,074 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 15,812 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.35 °F | of 14,608 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.39 °F | of 13,385 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 33,187 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 33,195 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.9 °F | of 33,193 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.79 °F | of 20,531 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.48 °F | of 30,064 October 8–November 7, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1594 · laid 2026-11-07T00:25:27Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- ccce1007e5e6a1d10c0bf452a8ef99aa3476595979555386dd42284e49fef0d3
- Machine
- JSON