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Milepost
1590

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Friday, 6 November 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1590

Minneapolis's forecast for Thursday has moved 10°F colder

54°F in the 20261104T12:00Z run, 44°F in the 20261106T06:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 8 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 12°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, November 12 at 21Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 53.5°F in the 20261104T12:00Z cycle to 43.5°F in the 20261106T06:00Z — a move of -10.0°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-10 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 8
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
12.3 °F normal 10.0 °F
current run
Milepost
1590 · laid 2026-11-06T16:25:26Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261106T06:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
69a934076d0cea65ce9454c48485a1eb97e78c90a64b1c324151b9d2a6c09ed9
Machine
JSON