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Milepost
1589

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Friday, 6 November 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1589

Minneapolis's forecast for Thursday has moved 8°F colder

54°F in the 20261104T06:00Z run, 46°F in the 20261106T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 6 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 16°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Thursday, November 12 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 53.9°F in the 20261104T06:00Z cycle to 46.3°F in the 20261106T00:00Z — a move of -7.6°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Thursday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-7.6 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 6
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
15.7 °F normal 7.6 °F
current run
Milepost
1589 · laid 2026-11-06T10:25:24Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261106T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
4f881b66c33dfaa3ce6fff64b5d54badc30a16cbf8b9e7e0a73d1622f78039e3
Machine
JSON