The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1587
The ledger, through November 6
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.36°F at day 1 and 4.69°F at day 7, over 708,752 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 7–November 6, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.36 | 67,939 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.56 | 67,957 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.82 | 67,951 |
| Day 4 | 3.35 | 3.16 | 67,954 |
| Day 5 | 3.90 | 3.67 | 67,947 |
| Day 6 | 4.42 | 4.21 | 67,780 |
| Day 7 | 4.77 | 4.69 | 54,807 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.03 | 34,031 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 37,104 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 34,728 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.82 °F | of 34,732 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.67 °F | of 34,730 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.69 °F | of 34,263 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 16,484 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.71 °F | of 15,223 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.35 °F | of 14,024 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.4 °F | of 12,795 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 33,211 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 33,219 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.9 °F | of 33,217 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.77 °F | of 20,544 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.49 °F | of 29,030 October 7–November 6, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1587 · laid 2026-11-06T00:25:29Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- f6e59616f673384c85642f557dc11cebb9c69233ccd31267f255c4f2576f5992
- Machine
- JSON