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Milepost
1585

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Thursday, 5 November 2026

Nashville, Tennessee Revisions MILEPOST 1583

Nashville's forecast for Saturday has moved 8°F colder

60°F in the 20261103T06:00Z run, 52°F in the 20261105T00:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 14°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, November 14 at 00Z in Nashville, that trail runs from 59.5°F in the 20261103T06:00Z cycle to 51.8°F in the 20261105T00:00Z — a move of -7.8°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 00Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-7.8 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 3
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
14.1 °F normal 7.8 °F
current run
Milepost
1583 · laid 2026-11-05T10:25:25Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261105T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
35ffdbae039cbb79d1838b8302c7356747b4f04ac133112711f18c25c0838934
Machine
JSON