The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1580
The ledger, through November 5
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.37°F at day 1 and 4.69°F at day 7, over 700,936 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 6–November 5, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.37 | 68,043 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.57 | 68,061 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.83 | 68,055 |
| Day 4 | 3.35 | 3.17 | 67,905 |
| Day 5 | 3.91 | 3.68 | 68,051 |
| Day 6 | 4.42 | 4.21 | 67,884 |
| Day 7 | 4.78 | 4.69 | 54,819 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.01 | 33,923 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 35,779 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 34,780 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,784 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.68 °F | of 34,782 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.69 °F | of 34,238 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 15,900 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.72 °F | of 14,644 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.35 °F | of 13,443 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 12,211 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 33,263 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 33,271 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.91 °F | of 33,269 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.78 °F | of 20,581 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.5 °F | of 27,998 October 6–November 5, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1580 · laid 2026-11-05T00:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 584b59d21938aa1f69b76eafcb907e51a60dd332e332944f7afb218c184d45ef
- Machine
- JSON