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Milepost
1577

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 4 November 2026

Kansas City, Missouri Revisions MILEPOST 1576

Kansas City's forecast for Saturday has moved 9°F colder

61°F in the 20261102T00:00Z run, 52°F in the 20261103T18:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 10°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Saturday, November 7 at 18Z in Kansas City, that trail runs from 60.9°F in the 20261102T00:00Z cycle to 52.2°F in the 20261103T18:00Z — a move of -8.6°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Saturday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-8.6 °F normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 5
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
10.3 °F normal 8.6 °F
current run
Milepost
1576 · laid 2026-11-04T04:25:25Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261103T18:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
6a72e034ce4a245b7aaa2b433be15a4a795d41a346764aeca8c0a390d74fcea5
Machine
JSON