The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1575
The ledger, through November 4
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.37°F at day 1 and 4.66°F at day 7, over 692,381 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 5–November 4, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.37 | 68,067 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.57 | 68,085 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.83 | 68,079 |
| Day 4 | 3.33 | 3.16 | 67,778 |
| Day 5 | 3.88 | 3.66 | 67,924 |
| Day 6 | 4.39 | 4.20 | 67,832 |
| Day 7 | 4.75 | 4.66 | 54,837 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.97 | 33,935 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.29 °F | of 34,433 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 34,792 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.83 °F | of 34,796 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 34,643 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.66 °F | of 34,250 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.35 °F | of 15,301 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.73 °F | of 14,052 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.35 °F | of 12,843 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 11,611 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 33,275 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 33,283 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.88 °F | of 33,281 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.75 °F | of 20,587 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.5 °F | of 26,950 October 5–November 4, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1575 · laid 2026-11-04T00:25:27Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 84fdf3197f480ee013b9e4313bb95850aa7e2e27da433233b64daf17fe85c7ee
- Machine
- JSON