NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1572
Guidance has run 3.9°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 8,994 pairs is +3.94°F, against +0.14°F averaged over all 86 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over October 4–November 3, 2026, it lands +3.94°F from the report, across 8,994 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 86 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.94 °F | normal 0.1 °F · 1 of 86 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1572 · laid 2026-11-03T21:25:27Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 48c364a931db59e2514137086a2905b16b5c9cb4bcb8548f8af0e93a20cc2bef
- Machine
- JSON