The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1566
The ledger, through November 3
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.66°F at day 7, over 684,029 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 4–November 3, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 68,091 |
| Day 2 | 2.69 | 2.59 | 68,109 |
| Day 3 | 3.02 | 2.85 | 68,103 |
| Day 4 | 3.35 | 3.18 | 67,653 |
| Day 5 | 3.90 | 3.68 | 67,948 |
| Day 6 | 4.39 | 4.20 | 67,780 |
| Day 7 | 4.76 | 4.66 | 54,781 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.97 | 33,949 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.3 °F | of 33,114 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 34,804 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.85 °F | of 34,808 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.68 °F | of 34,655 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.66 °F | of 34,187 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.37 °F | of 14,715 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.74 °F | of 13,463 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.37 °F | of 12,251 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.44 °F | of 11,022 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 33,287 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | of 33,295 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.9 °F | of 33,293 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.76 °F | of 20,594 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.52 °F | of 25,922 October 4–November 3, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1566 · laid 2026-11-03T00:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- ece4654450a805be33c8509d8c3969d9b486c6e880f22a6c3e538139d354ad9c
- Machine
- JSON