The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1561
The ledger, through November 2
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.65°F at day 7, over 675,450 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 3–November 2, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 67,972 |
| Day 2 | 2.70 | 2.61 | 68,065 |
| Day 3 | 3.02 | 2.86 | 67,984 |
| Day 4 | 3.35 | 3.19 | 67,685 |
| Day 5 | 3.89 | 3.69 | 67,829 |
| Day 6 | 4.37 | 4.19 | 67,812 |
| Day 7 | 4.75 | 4.65 | 54,733 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.00 | 33,965 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.31 °F | of 31,792 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 34,669 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 34,673 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.69 °F | of 34,520 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 34,128 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.38 °F | of 14,127 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.76 °F | of 12,875 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.39 °F | of 11,663 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.45 °F | of 10,441 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 33,303 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | of 33,311 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.89 °F | of 33,309 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.75 °F | of 20,605 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.53 °F | of 24,892 October 3–November 2, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1561 · laid 2026-11-02T00:25:22Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-11.ndjson - Digest
- 76760bd5190dd161ff343033ad56e61059d912118dde8baa777283ac05706c8d
- Machine
- JSON