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Milepost
1561

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Monday, 2 November 2026

Minneapolis, Minnesota Revisions MILEPOST 1560

Minneapolis's forecast for Friday has moved 8°F colder

53°F in the 20261030T18:00Z run, 45°F in the 20261101T12:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 7 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 11°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, November 6 at 18Z in Minneapolis, that trail runs from 53.0°F in the 20261030T18:00Z cycle to 45.2°F in the 20261101T12:00Z — a move of -7.9°F across 8 runs.

The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Friday at 18Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-7.9 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 7
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
11.2 °F normal 7.9 °F
current run
Milepost
1560 · laid 2026-11-01T22:25:23Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261101T12:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
0b11ffa56f3e4bcf8fcf4e8c7b005fb004f43e940d2179f7547cd56d8a65508a
Machine
JSON