Phoenix, Arizona Revisions
MILEPOST 1553
Phoenix's forecast for Monday has moved 10°F colder
69°F in the 20261031T00:00Z run, 58°F in the 20261031T18:00Z — the largest revision of any city on the roster. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 15°F.
Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Monday, November 2 at 11Z in Phoenix, that trail runs from 68.6°F in the 20261031T00:00Z cycle to 58.3°F in the 20261031T18:00Z — a move of -10.2°F across 8 runs.
The change is about half the run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread, so the earlier forecast is still inside the current range of outcomes.
Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| forecast revision for Monday at 11Z api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd) |
-10.2 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 3 8 synoptic cycles |
| 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour api.weather.city (nbm-qmd) |
15 °F | normal 10.2 °F current run |
- Milepost
- 1553 · laid 2026-11-01T04:25:23Z
- Model
- nbm-qmd · cycle 20261031T18:00Z
- Desk
- revision v1
- Method
- the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
- Source
- https://api.weather.city/v1/history
- Digest
- df6c3b6c90b5d709629cd8b9ea678a3a82fa685ceb4752d2ff28b7c9fb56eab4
- Machine
- JSON