The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1552
The ledger, through November 1
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.41°F at day 1 and 4.65°F at day 7, over 671,172 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 2–November 1, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.45 | 2.41 | 68,388 |
| Day 2 | 2.70 | 2.61 | 68,481 |
| Day 3 | 3.02 | 2.87 | 68,400 |
| Day 4 | 3.36 | 3.20 | 68,026 |
| Day 5 | 3.88 | 3.69 | 68,169 |
| Day 6 | 4.35 | 4.18 | 68,152 |
| Day 7 | 4.77 | 4.65 | 54,975 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.04 | 33,970 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.32 °F | of 30,655 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 34,877 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.87 °F | of 34,881 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.69 °F | of 34,652 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 34,338 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 13,665 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.76 °F | of 12,411 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.4 °F | of 11,203 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.44 °F | of 9,980 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.45 °F | of 33,511 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.02 °F | of 33,519 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.88 °F | of 33,517 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.77 °F | of 20,637 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.55 °F | of 23,989 October 2–November 1, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1552 · laid 2026-11-01T00:25:26Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
- Digest
- ba0714b19473a95202bbde15664ca520aa2200ce75616ffa1ca050ca49ebb0a4
- Machine
- JSON