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TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Wednesday, 16 September 2026

Weather Trader Winter MILEPOST 155

December 11, 2023 Week Ahead

Extreme cold in Siberia spills into China

What the month did

December 2023 was the warmest December in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 39.8°F against a 1991–2020 normal of 34.3°F (+5.4°F).

December 2023 was the 49th-wettest December in the 131-year national record (1895–2025), at 2.6in against a 1991–2020 normal of 2.5in (+0.1in).

NOAA/NCEI Climate at a Glance, contiguous United States. This is the observed record for the month, not a score of anything said in this piece — the forecast ledger begins 2026-08-17 and cannot reach earlier posts.

The most extreme winter weather is over Russia and Kazakhstan with severe cold spilling into Mongolia and China over the next 1-2 weeks. High pressure formed over Siberia and west of the Urals but could not sink southward to escape through Pakistan or Iran into the Indian Ocean. So, the cold air pool moves east into China affecting a significant chunk of the world’s population with much below normal temperatures.

This cold air mass will set the stage for enhancement of the Western Pacific jet stream over 200-knots in a streak off Japan. It will extend zonally to about the Dateline where Rossby wave breaking will spawn cut-off lows. This will shunt very warm air into North America with the Canadian Arctic blast factory shut off for the next 2-weeks.

For subscribers

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Milepost
155 · laid 2023-12-11T23:48:58.131000Z
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https://weather.substack.com/p/december-11-2023-week-ahead
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