The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1543
The ledger, through October 31
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.65°F at day 7, over 662,368 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for October 1–October 31, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.40 | 68,380 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.60 | 68,473 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.86 | 68,392 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.18 | 68,018 |
| Day 5 | 3.84 | 3.65 | 68,161 |
| Day 6 | 4.31 | 4.14 | 68,144 |
| Day 7 | 4.76 | 4.65 | 54,745 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.05 | 33,604 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 29,335 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 34,873 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 34,877 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 34,648 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.65 °F | of 34,109 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 13,083 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.77 °F | of 11,829 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.39 °F | of 10,628 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.43 °F | of 9,399 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 33,507 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 33,515 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.84 °F | of 33,513 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.76 °F | of 20,636 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.56 °F | of 22,963 October 1–October 31, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1543 · laid 2026-10-31T00:25:22Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson
- Digest
- a9bef41d2c221c84cdeeef9866654c5a35bd94108a88346ecef6c13477fd0c63
- Machine
- JSON