NBG The Ledger
MILEPOST 1540
Guidance has run 4.0°F warm at NBG for a month
The mean signed residual across 8,550 pairs is +3.99°F, against +0.03°F averaged over all 83 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At NBG over September 30–October 30, 2026, it lands +3.99°F from the report, across 8,550 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 83 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at NBG Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.99 °F | normal 0.0 °F · 1 of 83 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1540 · laid 2026-10-30T18:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 0606cbad505833b3c806a381a361347578549cba115ea1a0e021bb44e940c7bc
- Machine
- JSON