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Milepost
1536

TheForecast Post

A chronicle of American weather and climate  ·  Friday, 30 October 2026

Nashville, Tennessee Revisions MILEPOST 1536

Nashville's forecast for Friday has moved 6°F colder

70°F in the 20261029T12:00Z run, 63°F in the 20261030T00:00Z — the 3rd-largest revision of the 4 cities on the roster that moved at all. The current run's 10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour is 18°F.

Successive cycles do not merely refresh a forecast; they leave a trail. For Friday, November 6 at 21Z in Nashville, that trail runs from 69.6°F in the 20261029T12:00Z cycle to 63.4°F in the 20261030T00:00Z — a move of -6.2°F across 8 runs.

The change sits well inside the run's own spread, which is the guidance converging rather than reversing.

Model NBM-QMD, via api.weather.city /v1/history. Percentiles are the same run's own.

The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
forecast revision for Friday at 21Z
api.weather.city /v1/history (nbm-qmd)
-6.2 °F normal 0.0 °F · 3 of 4
8 synoptic cycles
10th-to-90th percentile spread at that hour
api.weather.city (nbm-qmd)
18 °F normal 6.2 °F
current run
Milepost
1536 · laid 2026-10-30T10:25:24Z
Model
nbm-qmd · cycle 20261030T00:00Z
Desk
revision v1
Method
the same valid time read from successive synoptic cycles; the move is last run minus first run
Source
https://api.weather.city/v1/history
Digest
fb6e9291cf9ace8e141327e89249b702c7d55d97739bd1e6512e937da249bc5e
Machine
JSON