The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1531
The ledger, through October 30
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.67°F at day 7, over 665,847 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 30–October 30, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.44 | 2.40 | 69,572 |
| Day 2 | 2.69 | 2.61 | 69,665 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.86 | 69,510 |
| Day 4 | 3.31 | 3.17 | 69,210 |
| Day 5 | 3.83 | 3.65 | 69,353 |
| Day 6 | 4.33 | 4.16 | 69,113 |
| Day 7 | 4.78 | 4.67 | 55,341 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.04 | 34,200 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.33 °F | of 28,510 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 35,469 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 35,399 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.65 °F | of 35,244 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.67 °F | of 34,330 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 12,709 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.78 °F | of 11,530 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.4 °F | of 10,330 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.46 °F | of 9,099 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 34,103 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,111 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.83 °F | of 34,109 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.78 °F | of 21,011 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.57 °F | of 22,288 September 30–October 30, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1531 · laid 2026-10-30T00:25:26Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- ea97bee69476ffbd6c8a873fd921388ad7d13a25cc5cefc8f2f8a4ba25695d3a
- Machine
- JSON