The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1521
The ledger, through October 29
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.40°F at day 1 and 4.66°F at day 7, over 657,465 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 29–October 29, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.44 | 2.40 | 69,644 |
| Day 2 | 2.69 | 2.61 | 69,737 |
| Day 3 | 3.01 | 2.86 | 69,582 |
| Day 4 | 3.33 | 3.19 | 69,282 |
| Day 5 | 3.85 | 3.67 | 69,198 |
| Day 6 | 4.35 | 4.17 | 68,800 |
| Day 7 | 4.79 | 4.66 | 55,404 |
| Day 8 | — | 5.03 | 34,236 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 27,171 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.4 °F | of 35,505 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 35,435 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.67 °F | of 35,053 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.66 °F | of 34,366 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.41 °F | of 12,116 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.78 °F | of 10,943 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.41 °F | of 9,739 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.47 °F | of 8,505 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.44 °F | of 34,139 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.01 °F | of 34,147 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.85 °F | of 34,145 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.79 °F | of 21,038 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.57 °F | of 21,246 September 29–October 29, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1521 · laid 2026-10-29T00:25:26Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- a547bc56bf75c06c844991334b9620b06aeaaa1ddeda2074ffc61456c5f2d598
- Machine
- JSON