The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1513
The ledger, through October 28
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.39°F at day 1 and 4.62°F at day 7, over 649,468 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 28–October 28, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.39 | 69,772 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.61 | 69,865 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.86 | 69,710 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.18 | 69,174 |
| Day 5 | 3.84 | 3.66 | 68,934 |
| Day 6 | 4.32 | 4.14 | 68,928 |
| Day 7 | 4.75 | 4.62 | 55,508 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.99 | 34,298 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.34 °F | of 25,832 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 35,569 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.86 °F | of 35,499 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 34,725 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.62 °F | of 34,430 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.42 °F | of 11,520 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.79 °F | of 10,352 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.42 °F | of 9,143 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.47 °F | of 7,913 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 34,203 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,211 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.84 °F | of 34,209 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.75 °F | of 21,078 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.58 °F | of 20,202 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1513 · laid 2026-10-28T00:25:32Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- f0877e190444724d22028cce9ffade410545f4fd32b9a8c1f751bc5453dcbfec
- Machine
- JSON