HII The Ledger
MILEPOST 1512
Guidance has run 5.3°F warm at HII for a month
The mean signed residual across 620 pairs is +5.35°F, against +0.16°F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At HII over September 28–October 28, 2026, it lands +5.35°F from the report, across 620 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at HII Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.35 °F | normal 0.2 °F · 1 of 85 September 28–October 28, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1512 · laid 2026-10-28T00:25:32Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 4f91d5d7712085ce2218c1dcf8b939861dd7d40d7cae34be446a910175513d37
- Machine
- JSON