HII The Ledger
MILEPOST 1509
Guidance has run 5.4°F warm at HII for a month
The mean signed residual across 676 pairs is +5.35°F, against +0.18°F averaged over all 85 stations with enough samples to score. A bias is not an error the reader can ignore — it is one they can correct for.
Mean absolute error says how far the forecast lands from the observation; the signed mean says which side it lands on. At HII over September 27–October 27, 2026, it lands +5.35°F from the report, across 676 pairs — the largest standing lean of any of the 85 stations currently carrying enough samples.
ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| mean signed residual at HII Forecast Network verification ledger |
5.35 °F | normal 0.2 °F · 1 of 85 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1509 · laid 2026-10-27T18:25:23Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- a9fbad3ffa1ba61ccc64ae756b5ad4079af63ae6b632d2a50bccdca27805199a
- Machine
- JSON