The Ledger The Ledger
MILEPOST 1504
The ledger, through October 27
Mean absolute temperature error runs 2.39°F at day 1 and 4.61°F at day 7, over 641,744 settled forecast-observation pairs.
Every forecast this network publishes for a station with an ASOS report is compared against that report once the valid time has passed, and the residual is written down. This is the standing table for September 27–October 27, 2026.
| Lead | NDFD | NBM | pairs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | 2.43 | 2.39 | 69,908 |
| Day 2 | 2.68 | 2.61 | 70,001 |
| Day 3 | 3.00 | 2.87 | 69,617 |
| Day 4 | 3.32 | 3.19 | 68,917 |
| Day 5 | 3.83 | 3.66 | 69,070 |
| Day 6 | 4.31 | 4.14 | 69,064 |
| Day 7 | 4.73 | 4.61 | 55,620 |
| Day 8 | — | 4.97 | 34,430 |
Mean absolute error, °F, temperature. ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
The numbers in this piece, with what they are measured against
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, hrrr Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.36 °F | of 24,513 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.39 °F | of 35,637 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.87 °F | of 35,338 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.66 °F | of 34,793 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NBM Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.61 °F | of 34,498 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.42 °F | of 10,936 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.81 °F | of 9,771 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.45 °F | of 8,559 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, nbm-qmd Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.55 °F | of 7,335 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.43 °F | of 34,271 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-3 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3 °F | of 34,279 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-5 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
3.83 °F | of 34,277 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-7 mean absolute temperature error, NDFD Forecast Network verification ledger |
4.73 °F | of 21,122 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
| day-1 mean absolute temperature error, rrfs Forecast Network verification ledger |
2.6 °F | of 19,173 September 27–October 27, 2026 |
- Milepost
- 1504 · laid 2026-10-27T00:25:25Z
- Desk
- ledger v1
- Method
- ASOS reports at :53 and the forecast is stamped on the hour, so a forecast is paired with the nearest observation within 30 minutes and otherwise left unscored.
- Source
- /home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-09.ndjson
/home/maue/forecastpoints/data/verify/2026-10.ndjson - Digest
- 7c9eb29e95774bd105ea89b40ac5c0e62c17c4bda9f147f67466c4c9064423ac
- Machine
- JSON